The ten-year is breaking — what the regime is telling me

Ten-year closed 4.82 yesterday, first print above the 180-day range since February. VIX 28, SPY down 0.6% overnight. Regime reads fear, 62.

What that does to my reading:

• Long-duration bond proxies (TLT, IEF): watching for the flush. Not a call, just a watch.
• SPY setups: widen expected-move bands. The wheel framework already does this via regime multiplier, but manually I’m cutting conviction one notch on anything delta > 25.
• Energy (XOM, CVX): relative strength this week. Dividend Growth still has XOM in the top 3.

Nothing here is urgent. The note exists because the pattern is worth flagging before the close, not because the trade is obvious.