Research · Monday, April 13, 2026
Fear returns: four wheel setups and one thesis pick for a jumpy tape
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Ideas (3)
$180 strike · exp Apr 25, 2026
21-delta put with a clean expected-move band and no earnings catalyst in the window. 3.8% premium annualized above the Core Universe median this cycle. Regime multiplier bumps conviction.
Observation, not a recommendation.
Top of the Three Pillars list after the regime multiplier. ROE holds through the cycle, D/E unchanged, 5Y revenue CAGR still double-digits. Valuation is the weak axis; size accordingly.
Observation, not a recommendation.
Streak intact, yield above 5-year average, 5Y dividend CAGR 4.2%. Energy complex leadership when the 10Y is wobbling.
Observation, not a recommendation.
What the tape is telling me
Fear score ticked to 62 this week. VIX through 28, 10Y testing 4.8, SPY giving back the post-earnings bounce. None of that is a prediction — it’s just where we are.
The regime overlay adds a 1.18× multiplier to framework scores this cycle. That tilts the wheel toward higher-premium strikes, the Three Pillars toward quality names that hold through volatility, and Dividend Growth toward names with rising payouts and cash flow cover.
Four wheel setups
See the idea cards above. Each is a cash-secured put I’d open if I were putting capital to work this week. I am not telling you to open any of them. The strike/expiry combinations come from the wheel framework’s top-ranked candidates after regime multiplier; I filter for earnings-clean windows and expected-move clearance.
One thesis pick
MSFT sits at the top of the Three Pillars list again. The number isn’t the interesting thing — the consistency is. Ten scans in a row, ROE unchanged, balance sheet unchanged, growth intact. What changed is the regime. In fear, the quality multiplier pushes it.
How this read performs is not the point
The track record will tell you whether this kind of framing is worth reading over time. I publish the ideas, I hold the names I’d hold, you decide what to do with it.